by Konstantin Tskhay​

May 6, 2025

Predictable, Repeatable, Powerful: Unlocking HR Seasonality

↓

Hi again, friends!

A few reminders:

1. TMU: This week, I have started teaching at the Toronto Metropolitan University's People Analytics Program, which I have developed. I am teaching a technical course and cannot wait to see how it goes. Stay tuned. I just hope everyone goes on video.
   ​
2. Do you know any space in Toronto? The Toronto People Analytics Group is always looking for a space sponsor for us to host our meetups.
   ​
3. My Practical People Analytics Course is doing very well. So, last week, I decided to increase the price of the course, given other competitors are charging $1,000+ for content that does not even meet the same standard. The new price will be $350 as I want to make sure it is still affordable and will kick in just 4 days from now on May 10th. So, if you are interested in checking it out, it is only $150 for now!

​

Now, onto the newsletter!

And today, I want to talk about something we rarely talk about in People Analytics — Seasonality.

We often think of HR work as continuous and linear — engagement surveys, hiring plans, turnover reports, all unfolding as the company grows.

But every experienced HR leader knows this isn’t the full picture.

And here’s the good news: that’s actually better.

If everything were a straight, one-way path forward, we’d be constantly guessing at what comes next. And as you already know, most forecasting models are notorious for being wrong.

But because HR follows seasonal patterns, we can anticipate what’s around the corner.

We may not have a crystal ball, but these cycles give us something just as valuable: predictability.

So, in today's newsletter, I invite you to join me on the journey about seasonality:

• Why the world (and HR) is seasonal?
• What seasonality means for people analytics
• And, HR Strategy
• How it all comes together

Let's go!

---

🕰 Why the World (and HR) Is Seasonal

The weather is seasonal.

Markets are seasonal.

Economies are seasonal.

Human energy, motivation, and attention are seasonal.

Let's dive into one example:

Think about financial markets — August and December are often slower because key players go on vacation. Retail businesses experience a massive surge in Q4. And, the market drifts higher towards the end of December for a nice Santa Rally.

Inside HR, we see these seasons play out year after year — and once you recognize them, you start to realize just how predictable many challenges (and opportunities) really are.

🌱 January and September: The Fresh Start

These are the classic reset months.

In January, new budgets are unlocked, strategic goals are refreshed, and hiring kicks back into gear after the holiday slowdown. This is also when we see higher attrition spikes as people took the holidays to find new opportunities.

September brings a similar energy—post-summer vacations, teams returning focused, and leaders push hard to land key initiatives before year-end.

For HR, this means:

• Increased hiring activity — open roles in the pipeline
• Employee enthusiasm — people set new goals
• Strategic alignment — it’s a moment to set a tone for the year

☀️ Summer: School's Out

And yes, we still live on our school schedule. Because, well... kids...

Summer is a time when business naturally slows.

People are on vacation, meeting schedules thin out, and projects lose momentum.

We can call summer a seasonal pause.

For HR, this often shows up as:

• Lower productivity or project progress
• Higher absenteeism — planned vacations + time off
• Less urgency — super slow decision making

Smart HR teams use this time to focus inward: refresh processes, plan for upcoming busy periods, or quietly work on projects that benefit from fewer distractions.

🔥 Mid-Year: The Pressure Cooker

By mid-year, the excitement of January fades, and reality sets in.

Targets are looming, workloads pile up, and employees (and managers) often feel the squeeze. Engagement tends to dip, burnout risk rises, and the cracks in team dynamics start to show.

For HR, this is the season to:

• Watch engagement data carefully
• Support managers — they feel their targets and employees

🍂 Late Fall: The Reckoning

As the year wraps up, companies enter a period of intense focus and, sometimes, tough decisions.

We must review how we did over the year and prepare for the next.

It’s performance review time.

Budget cuts or restructuring plans may surface. Many employees also reflect on their own future—do they want to stay or make a change in the new year?

For HR, this means:

• Heavy performance management load
• Potential turnover spikes — voluntary and involuntary
• Budget and headcount resets — planning for the next year

These aren’t random or isolated — they’re repeatable patterns baked into the rhythm of work.

---

📊 What Seasonality Means for People Analytics

Here’s where it gets exciting.

If you’re doing people analytics, you can access months (if not years) of KPI data: turnover rates, engagement scores, hiring activity, absenteeism, productivity trends. And within that data are hidden seasonal patterns.

A few practical moves:

✅ Pull time-based trends

• Plot them over 12-18 months and observe seasonality in action
• Look for spikes and dips and think of what might be happening
• Mark key events as you move forward to review later on

✅ Separate signal from noise

• Assess your prediction strength moving forward
• When making decisions, make a prediction of your metrics
• Evaluate how strong your predictive power is

✅ Don't over rely on seasonality

• Yes, it helps you increase your predictive power
• But it is not the only tool you have
• Use it to show you direction, but remember
• It is not always the whole trurth

---

🔧 Applying Seasonality to HR Strategy

Here’s the key: recognizing seasonality isn’t just an academic exercise — it’s actionable intelligence.

• If you know engagement typically dips mid-year, launch a pulse survey early to surface burnout signs
• If you know your hiring market heats up in January, get your offers out in December or prepare your team for a
• If you know absenteeism spikes post-holiday, plan project timelines accordingly and ask everyone to input their vacation in the system

The more you tune into the natural cycles of your people and your business, the more strategic and proactive your HR function becomes.

---

🌟 The Big Picture

We live in cycles.

Ignore them, and you’ll feel like you’re always firefighting because you are literally going against nature.

Recognize them, and you can ride the waves, preparing ahead of time, pacing yourself, and aligning your energy to when it’s needed most.

I’ll leave you with this:

K

---

Whenever you’re ready, there are 2 ways I can help you:

#1

If you’re still looking to get started in People Analytics, I recommend starting with my affordable course:

​Practical People Analytics: Build data-driven HR programs to 10x your professional effectiveness, business impact, and career. This comprehensive course will teach you everything from building an HR dashboard for business results to driving growth through more advanced analytics (i.e., regression). Join your peers today! ​
​

#2

If you are looking for support in your human capital programs, such as engagement, retention, and compensation & benefits, and want to take a more data-driven approach, contact me at Tskhay & Associates for consulting services. Or simply reply to this email!