Why Your Retention Strategy Needs a "Heart Rate Zone"

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Friends,

I started running in Zone 2 now as I am getting ready to be in the boxing fight camp. This is when you are forcing your heart rate to be steady and encourage your body to use fat as fuel rather than carbs or muscles.

In a long term, it should increase the number of mitochondria in your sells and allow you to use energy more efficiently.

How does this connect to retention.

Well, you see, my Zone 2 is between 133 beats per minute and 146 beats per minute and you have to stay in this zone as you run.

Should we adopt the same logic to retention?

Instead of the number, maybe we should have a range...

Are you ready for it?

But before we deep dive, don't miss our next people analytics event on September 23 at the Toronto People Analytics Group at TMU if you are in Toronto.

Jin Yan from Revelio Labs, our event sponsor, will break down what's actually happening at the activity level:

• Which tasks AI is already reshaping
• Which roles may be most exposed
• Where human skills are becoming more valuable
• And why job titles alone may be the wrong way to think about workforce strategy

And Revelio has a HUUUUUGE dataset to back it all up.

This is a live event in Toronto, and space is limited.

​See the event details and reserve your spot →​

Now, back to the newsletter!

Whenever leadership teams sit down to set annual HR targets, the conversation around retention usually devolves into the exact same trap:

"What's the industry benchmark? Okay, let me write down 90% retention."

Or worse: "We want turnover as close to zero as possible."

Then, the moment monthly turnover ticks up by 0.5%, panic sets in. HR rushes to engagement surveys, exit interview deep-dives, and emergency retention plans.

Next month, turnover ticks down by 0.7%, and everyone relaxes.

This knee-jerk cycle can be exhausting—and it likely is ineffective.

The trouble is that we assume that there should be little variance in retention, which means we are making an assumption that retention is fully under out control.

You get the point, but let's dive deeper.

Let's back track to heart rate zones...

The Heart Rate Analogy

Think about how a doctor evaluates your heart rate.

Your resting heart rate might average 65 beats per minute. If you stand up to grab a cup of coffee and your heart rate ticks up to 72, your doctor doesn't rush you into emergency surgery. If you're relaxing on the couch and it drops to 60, nobody calls an ambulance.

Why?

Because human cardiovascular systems operate within a healthy target zone. Minor, natural fluctuations inside that band are completely normal.

Your organization’s workforce is no different. Retention shouldn't be managed to a static target line.

It should be managed inside a Retention Zone.

The Danger of Retaining Everyone

Managing to a "zone" forces us to confront a reality that traditional HR playbooks often ignore:

Turnover is not inherently bad.

Here is what happens when you stray outside your healthy retention zone:

• Above the Zone (Retention is Too High / Turnover is Too Low): When retention approaches 100%, executives usually celebrate. They shouldn't. Unnaturally high retention often signals that your organization has stopped managing out underperformance. It breeds institutional complacency, blocks career progression for high-potential junior employees, and prevents fresh skills from entering the organization.
• Below the Zone (Retention is Too Low / Turnover is Too High): This is the obvious panic zone. Key talent is walking out the door, institutional memory is bleeding out, team burnout spikes, and recruitment replacement costs skyrocket.

Knowing People Analytics means moving beyond simply reporting whether retention went up or down this quarter and understanding what those movements actually mean for workforce decisions. → Learn more about the People Analytics course​

How to Determine Your Retention Zone

So how do you actually build a data-driven Retention Zone?

Instead of picking a single benchmark number out of thin air, People Analytics teams need to combine two distinct metrics:

• Relevant Market Benchmarks: Calibrate against your specific industry, region, and function (e.g., engineering retention looks radically different from retail store retention).
• Historical Variance: Calculate your organization's natural statistical movement over time. What does the standard variance look like when the business is operating normally?

By layering historical variance onto benchmark data, you define an acceptable operating band—say, 86% to 92% retention for a critical technical unit.

• Green Zone (Inside the Band): Normal operational noise. Do not freak out. Do not launch a company-wide initiative because turnover moved 0.4% within this range.
• Red Zone (Outside the Band): True signal. A fundamental breach that requires immediate, targeted intervention.

More than that, you need to watch for the trend and see if there is a consistent exodus or lack of management happening.

The CHRO Playbook

Your operational response must differ fundamentally depending on which boundary of the zone you break.

When you break BELOW the zone (Turnover Spike):

• Run a talent turnover audit: Who are you losing? Are you losing high performers, or are losses concentrated in specific tenure buckets?
• Identify localized friction: Is turnover concentrated under specific managers, departments, or pay bands? Why is that? Is there a seasonality effect at play?
• Intervene aggressively: Reallocate workload, address compensation gaps, or intervene directly in leadership friction.

When you break ABOVE the zone (Retention Spike / Stagnation):

• Audit performance management: Are managers avoiding tough performance conversations and passing along low performers? Are we encouraging complacency, not performance and profitability in the business?
• Check internal mobility: Is zero turnover at the top blocking growth opportunities for rising talent below, opening a risk of them leaving?
• Review skill alignment: Are you retaining legacy skill sets that no longer align with your future capability requirements? Can AI help your workforce management efforts?

When you are IN the Green Zone:

• Protect operational focus: Resist the urge to over-react to monthly noise. Let managers focus on execution.

If you're trying to figure out what this should look like inside your organization—moving from rigid HR targets to intelligent workforce performance bands—that's a conversation we can have. We work with organizations on People Analytics capabilities, workforce planning, and using workforce data to make better decisions.

​→ Learn more about our consulting work​

K

Whenever you’re ready, there are 2 ways I can help you:

#1

If you’re still looking to get started in People Analytics, I recommend starting with my affordable course:

​Practical People Analytics: Build data-driven HR programs to 10x your professional effectiveness, business impact, and career. This comprehensive course will teach you everything from building an HR dashboard for business results to driving growth through more advanced analytics (i.e., regression). Join your peers today! ​
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#2

If you are looking for support in your human capital programs, such as engagement, retention, and compensation & benefits, and want to take a more data-driven approach, contact me at Tskhay & Associates for consulting services. Or simply reply to this email!